[swapped first two paragraphs; tweaks for clarity]
So this Philosophy Stackexchange answer by bobflux has me thinking, even as I’m about to get my booster shot. It’s long, but well-argued.
Intuition: Antibiotic resistance means you must finish your whole prescription so you kill the whole population, instead of just selecting for resistant ones. There is a similar concern with leaky vaccines.
My short summary, in table form plus three notes:
| Sterilizing (Measles vax) | Leaky (Covid vax) | |
|---|---|---|
| Contagious (e.g. Measles) | Vaccinate lots: balance side-effects & infection. No evolution. | More vax ➛ more resistant. 3 paths: 1) Dengue: ☠️ vaxed; 2) Marek: ☠️ unvaxed; 3) common cold |
| Non-Contagious (e.g. Tetanus) | Get if you want. Little impact on others. | –NA– |
Expanding on those three paths:
-
Dengue vax caused antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), where the vaccine increased viral load, making Dengue more deadly to the vaxxed. Ouch.
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Marek vax in chickens extends infections of “strains otherwise too lethal to persist”. What used to paralyze and kill old birds is now 100% lethal even to young. All must be vaxxed, and will be carriers.
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Common cold: Those with mild case go out and about, spreading mild variants and immunities. Those very sick stay home and spread less. Utilitarians have a moral obligation to host Covid Parties.
~End Summary~
I’m happily on the annual-flu-shot train, esp. on the hope that by the time I’m 70 and need it, my system will have seen a lot of variants. Also, I haven’t heard any worries about breeding more resistant flu. I’ve been assuming for awhile that COVID would follow the common-cold path of becoming prevalent and mild, at worst flu-like with annual vaccines. And given that it’s impossible to avoid exposure, it seems better to get side effects of the spike protein rather than infection effects of the live virus.
Now twice in the last week I’ve come across the 2015 paper about the Marek experiment and am thinking about the evolutionary dynamics, and monocultures. How to tell what path we are on? When is it better to Stoically accept the current infections to spare future generations?
More immediately, should I go through with the booster shot? (Given it’s scheduled for tomorrow, that’s the default and most likely outcome. But I am wondering. )