Charles R. Twardy

Follow @ctwardy on Micro.blog.

Bayesian

Causation

Clear Thinking

Covid19

Data Science

Faith

Forecasting

History

Information Theory

Politics

Preprints

Programming

Replication Markets

Science

Scifi

Search Theory

Tech

Work

2022-10-02: STEM appeal ADSEI’s Linda McIver on swapping toy problems for real ones: ❝  I shifted the subject …

2022-10-02: The only way to win Janelle Shane on people hacking GPT-3 chatbots: A curious game, Dr. Falken…

2022-09-28: Alan Jacobs’ Two versions of covid skepticism summarizes a longer piece by Madeleine Kearns. …

2022-09-21: Jacobs on LeGuin & forgiveness * Art is only possible with freedom. * Hyper-critical Jacobs on …

2022-09-21: Tolke I really enjoyed the weaving of biography and lesser-known Middle Earth history in this Smithsonian …

2022-07-28: Alice Dreger reflects on two recent books, and on bookstores, “In sharp contrast to the social …

2022-07-28: Novelty Search and the Problem with Objectives , Lehman & Stanley, 2011. ❝  the more …

2022-07-28: I’ve had Alan Jacobs’ self-understanding and resistance in a browser tab for awhile. …

2022-06-16: Lightning at Ocean City

2022-05-16: State Department & Intelligence CNN writes: Only one intelligence agency appears to have accurately predicted that the Ukrainian …

2022-05-01: ~From AI Weirdness subscribers’ list. But here’s the companion public post.

2022-04-20: Moderate Manifesto How did I not hear about Strong Towns before? A short manifesto for engaged persuading. ❝  If you …

2022-04-20: Greenfield: Orwell diagnoses our culture wars ❝  Orwell, himself a socialist, argues first that “Socialism in its developed form is a theory …

2022-04-16: Compass Rose Barn

2022-04-11: Ed Wright (d.2022) I turned to µ.blog this morning because my inbox told me a former colleague had died. I hadn’t …

2022-03-16: i’m not sure what this says about me other than gosh it was a nice day…

2022-03-14: Loved this whimsy.

2022-03-12: Skywatching 🌌 New used scope 🔭 I had a lovely hour last night chasing the Orion Nebula with my 16yo at a local soccer field with …

2022-03-08: "Maybe crypto is best understood as a new set of incentives." ~Meissler I see crypto as dystopian by design, but Daniel Meissler’s re-imagining at least lets me …

2022-02-24: ❝  If you find you always agree with the liberal or conservative party, then that is your true …

2022-02-22: I signed into µ.blog to bookmark some tech piece and found instead that Paul Farmer has died.

2022-02-16: ❝  If you must write about us, at least give a damn about us, Sound advice from Whitney Kimball …

2022-02-13: "We need to talk about Cosby" This seems so very Catholic: ❝  But as Bell’s wise documentary also makes clear, there wasn’t …

2022-02-10: Python Anti-Pattern: Default Mutable Arguments @SourceryAI found a bad habit I didn’t know I …

2022-02-09: ❝  When we’re good at participatory sense-making, we can become societies that support each member, …

2022-02-09: Alan Alda & Science Communication ❝  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could train scientists to be communicators and be personal like this …

2022-02-07: Periodically a song from “The Greatest Showman” is on my mental background music. I just …

2022-02-07: ❝  Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place. Therefore, if you write the …

2022-02-02: Bookmark: Alan Jacobs excerpting a recent Rowan Williams essay in The New Statesman. Education, …

2022-01-31: Dear Self: Remember periodically to reread Dorothy Bishop’s (@DeevyBee) recent reflection on …

2022-01-26: Huh! Quite OK Image compression provides a simple fast algorithm and format that seems to benchmark …

2022-01-25: ...much exaggerated. Headlines about the death of theory are philosopher clickbait. Fortunately Laura Spinney’s …

2022-01-20: Marvel’s The Eternals is not my favorite, but I’m liking it a bit more after Film Theory …

2021-12-07: Model Testing, Mayo, Fisher, Bickel Deborah Mayo has a new post on Model Testing and p-values vs. posteriors. I haven’t read …

2021-12-03: Leaky vax & evolution [swapped first two paragraphs; tweaks for clarity] So this Philosophy Stackexchange answer by …

2021-11-26: Discovered my new favorite Thanksgiving poem/prayer, from Malcom Guite: …

2021-11-26: Janelle Shane asks GPT-3 what else besides water to bring on a hike. More here

2021-11-08: Dashboards are the opposite. They’re often data, looking for a problem. ~Ben Stancil

2021-10-20: Like so many of his interviews, this with McChrystal looks fascinating. I found the beginning of the …

2021-10-18: Good essay. I did not know the tragic Aaron Swartz story. This struck me too: Perhaps the KGB would …

2021-10-01: Seems to me that claiming it’s “illegal and unconstitutional” to vax soldiers …

2021-10-01: readup.com “The Ancient Art of Using Time Well”

2021-09-23: Excellent 12-minute presentation & performance by Joy Buolamwini on AI bias. From 2019: …

2021-09-12: Hard to have nice things The mouseover for reviews on “Trusted [hah] Consumer Reviews”: sigh

2021-08-31: Voice for compassionate harm reduction “when truth itself has supply-chain problems.” readup.com …

2021-08-11: In the last couple of years I’ve discovered both Conversations with Tyler and Sullivan’s …

2021-08-08: Power

2021-08-06: Not Fully Vaccinated This is 5-10x more dramatic than I thought. About half of Virginians (~2/3 of adults) are fully …

2021-08-06: 🔖 Old-fashioned confusion, a forecasting blog by Foretell forecaster kojif.

2021-08-06: 🔖 Alan Jacobs’ post, beats me. What he said. On the narrow point, there are risk-benefit …

2021-08-02: ❝  the reality and importance of climate change does not … excuse … avoiding questions …

2021-08-02: I love this Foretell comment:

2021-07-19: The Economist often has clever covers, but I really struggled to figure out the metaphor here. …

2021-07-16: Watching Sydney’s Delta cases repeat the early-phase exponential growth of Melbourne, …

2021-07-15: Acapella Science’s 🧬 Evo Devo is just so good. (So many others too.)

2021-07-08: The July 5 Lancet letter reaffirms the authors’ earlier skeptical view of LabLeak. They cited …

2021-07-02: Lates NAS newsletter quotes their outgoing editor, Daniel Saarewitz, from 25 years ago: “The …

2021-06-30: Link rot is worse than I thought. blog.ayjay.org/the-rotti… The full Atlantic article …

2021-06-30: Whimsical final slide for great USPTO talk by Wm. Carlson on Tesla & the social process of …

2021-06-29: Latest Analytic Insider asks how analysts can help reframe national conversations … around …

2021-06-28: A thought on the Parlour Game (Handfield) Toby Handfield mused on a philosopher requesting advice about an upcoming talk: I don’t know any of …

2021-06-24: CSET has noted that Chinese and US fighter pilots are losing to AI. Some of us were doing that back …

2021-06-22: Arnold Kling: 2021 book titles show epistemological crisis. This may fit with a historical pattern. …

2021-06-22: Jacobs’ Heather Wishart interviews Gen. McChrystal on teams and innovation: I think our …

2021-06-22: Pandas is wonderful, but Haki Benita reminds us it’s often better to aggregate in the database …

2021-06-22: Dan Miessler reflects on the value of shared culture: I think young men lacking a shared culture …

2021-06-14: David Peterson suggests metascience drop its implicit unity-of-science approach: If reformers want …

2021-06-10: On K-means Clustering hljs.highlightAll(); Background This was inspired by Paul Harrison’s (pfh’s) 2021 post, …

2021-06-10: Alan Jacobs today: Wondering … what to read? … Ask yourself one question: Does this …

2021-06-08: Vergangenheitsaufarbeitung “   The Germans decided that discomfort could make them stronger by creating guardrails …

2021-06-08: Measuring bot misinfo on facebook - DANMASK-19 Not exactly a surprise, but Ayers et al measure a …

2021-06-03: Sigh

2021-05-23: Re-updated CDC numbers, and self-critique. Re: earlier posts: The apparent discrepancy November/December discrepancy between higher …

2021-05-20: Periodically reread SlateStarCodex’ A failure, but not of prediction. There is so much gold in …

2021-05-18: Finishing Off the Beaten Path by Gustavo Bondoni 📚 A delightful collection of SF/Fantasy stories …

2021-05-18: Currently reading: Breaking Bread with the Dead by Alan Jacobs (µblog @ayday) 📚

2021-05-18: Bias and Noise A clear essay by Kahneman, Sibony, & Sunstein. Executives in the insurance …

2021-05-16: In a long post on sustained irrationality in the markets, Vitalik Buterin describes his experience …

2021-05-12: Readibility or performance? In How performance became the nemesis of secure Python code, Dima Kotik …

2021-05-10: Broniatowski on why I fail. Also, ending the pandemic. Yesterday I commented on a cousin’s post sharing a claim about 9 reported child vaccine …

2021-05-10: Airborne / VAERS Thanks to Mike Bishop for alerting me to Jiminez’ 100-tweet thread and Lancet paper on the …

2021-05-09: Fact-checking win Surprisingly, fact-checking prompted Iran’s Supreme Leader to retract his mistaken claim about …

2021-05-07: …we are left with the problem that… Social scientists think of themselves as …

2021-05-07: Avoiding the High Cost of Peer Review Failures Wilderness & Environmental Medicine’s editor Neil Pollock frequently writes an …

2021-05-04: Flu has nearly disappeared worldwide durin the COVID pandemic The distancing measures to prevent …

2021-04-27: Wellerstein on nuclear secrecy: Interview in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about his new book 📚 Restricted Data. A thoughtful, …

2021-04-26: Predicting replicability: scientists are 73% accurate Congratulations to Michael Gordon et al for their paper in PLoS One! This paper combines the results …

2021-04-25: Sullivan compares COVID to AIDS, Camus, and . One person thinking through what vaccination & far …

2021-04-25: Ben Kuo saved a life using Google Earth and clear thinking. www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle…

2021-04-22: An image of West Coast data science: I keep climbing the leaderboard! … Life is pretty …

2021-04-21: Fantastic Anachronism Q1 2021 I continue to be astonished by how much “Alvaro de Menard” reads. See his Q1 2021 links …

2021-04-18: www.economist.com A big reason spelling systems never seem to get overhauled in more liberal …

2021-04-18: www.economist.com Neither are face-recognition systems or sentencing software bought by those who …

2021-04-01: Emotional Epidemiology In this letter, Heidi Larson & David Broniatowski argue that, vaccine hesitancy is not the same …

2021-03-29: Volcano, and other links I have lost more time than I care to admit watching the volcano in Geldingsadalur. It’s …

2021-03-27: I’m sorry to say I found this reflection by Adam Briggle almost entirely uninteresting. Of …

2021-03-22: Brand defense; vendoring culture; memory & notes In biographies and brands, after some clear examples Jacobs notes that many accusations of …

2021-03-18: COVID19 Origins Debate | Metaforecast HTT Nuño Sempere’s January forecasting newsletter. And be sure to check out his marvelous …

2021-03-15: Excel error kills 1,500 The Excel row-limit inadvertently prevented contact tracing for two weeks in the UK, causing a …

2021-03-08: SAT, Psychic AI, Seuss Sullivan on SAT Killing the SAT Means Hurting Minorities While I’m thinking of Sullivan, this …

2021-03-08: Health literacy Worth remembering: “Among the people I work with in medical schools, there’s a strong adherence to …

2021-03-04: AJ on Impermanence Key quotes from this post: Snell: incompatibility comes for every abandoned app eventually Rendle: …

2021-02-27: AJ on Conservatism Inc., +more Worth reading in entirety, Alan Jacobs reflects on an essay by Douthat: Such a system, predictably, …

2021-02-27: Stop Thinking & Get Certified Slogan on an ad for scrum training. Featured in the the 2015 talk “Agile is Dead”. Dave …

2021-02-24: Gelman on Bad Science for Good Gelman’s recent short post on Relevance of Bad Science for Good Science includes a handy Top10 …

2021-02-22: Work/Life Balance

2021-02-22: US Insurrectionist Movement? January 6 moved Randy Pherson at Globalytica to ask if there is an active insurrectionist movement …

2021-02-19: What is your theory, again? Just re-found this @ayjay essay in an old tab. The question I would ask churches that are …

2021-02-17: Kasparov vs Deep Blue, & techno-determinism too Writing for IEEE Spectrum, Joanna Goodrich says that Deep Blue beat Kasparov because was just so …

2021-02-16: My People Sam Rocha, In America Magazine

2021-02-16: Well, this seems backwards. Hopefully Janelle Shane will have a delightful and silly riposte. …

2021-02-14: Huh. My age group (45+) has about 25% more deaths this year - roughly the same excess % as for 85+. …

2021-02-14: Updated CDC numbers CDC total deaths snapshot: December weekly #s gained about 4,500 vs. two weeks ago: there are now 4 …

2021-02-12: “Either we can all be cold… or we can live in Florida.”

2021-02-10: The thing I read today was Yudkowsky on r/WallStreetBets - I did not know that.

2021-02-10: Ritchie on Sloppy Pandemic Science Essay worth reading in its entirety: The Great Reinforcer by Stuart Ritchie. To be sure, out of the …

2021-02-09: It seems flu counts really are extraordinarily low. Sure, we’re missing cases because people …

2021-02-09: A good column by our SVP for technology & innovation.

2021-02-09: This was a sobering take on possible downsides of Universal Basic Income. HTT Bryan Caplan.

2021-02-07: Commie Vaccine Meteors A friend notes that the US has a long of equating vaccines and public health with commie …

2021-02-06: So, we tried this. It’s good, though a bit sweeter than I was wanting today. Fun! …

2021-02-03: Bookmarking A methodology for agile data science by Edwin Thoen (ch.5 of Agile Data Science with R). …

2021-02-02: Bookmarking Why Kanban for data science. Two core issues: > …tasks have uncertain outcomes …

2021-01-31: Prayers of the Faithful [Edited 2021-02-02 to shorten and include Alexis’ suggestion. -crt] [2021-05-23 Updated the …

2021-01-27: Immortal time bias A subtle trap in treatment studies. I hadn’t heard of it, and had to follow …

2021-01-24: Don't do cryptocurrency It seems like the current crypto market may be a giant fraud. This fits my mildly informed …

2021-01-24: Antifa, q, redirect, big tech Just capturing a facebook post (screenshot) - I went into the internet archive to see what used to …

2021-01-23: Opportunity costs. What would happen if the Dems made a strategic compromise on Roe v Wade? If you were Biden, what …

2021-01-21: Wrong About The winner of the Metaculus Li-Wenliang COVID-19 forecasting tournament was wrong about …

2021-01-21: Monk on American Democracy Aristotle argued that an enduring republic required a balance between democracy (popular …

2021-01-20: From Pale Rider, Afterword: …and novelists try to put themselves [in] the heads of those who …

2021-01-18: Monk on China Conspiracy Theories - April 2020 I was reviewing this old interview with Australia’s Paul Monk, covering Coronavirus, China, …

2021-01-14: A touching, real conversation on faith, death, grief, culture wars, the Christmas season, …

2021-01-12: I’m not a fan of the XKCD “free speech” strip. I think it fails the reflexivity …

2021-01-11: Another great piece at Fantastic Anachronism: Are Experts Real. I hadn’t heard about N=59. 😱 …

2021-01-10: More vs Slack In Slack and Zoom were distracting…, John Lacy notes: * We found that asynchronous communication …

2021-01-04: Sitting at a desk all day, it’s easy to start feeling like a brainless polyp Walking as as …

2020-12-30: Richard Hanania: > A remarkably high percentage of bad economic takes can be attributed to people …

2020-12-23: A Covid Puzzle Resolved In a discussion with @Somensi about excess deaths, I was puzzled by an apparent discrepancy between …

2020-12-20: Concentrate An essay by Grand Master Jonathan Rowan, courtesy of Readup. But, most of all, I miss …

2020-12-17: e.e. cummings “next to of course god america i love you land of the pilgrims’ and so forth oh say can you see by …

2020-12-13: Sounds like a fun blog, just shouldn’t be masquerading as a journal. …

2020-11-27: Herzog & Sullivan: Where Have All the Lesbians Gone? Instead of saying, “I’m a woman and I reject gender roles,” NB ideology says, in effect, “I reject …

2020-11-24: The Dish Podcast Excellent discussion between Sullivan and Yglesias. Had to grit my teeth through some of Yglesias’ …

2020-11-23: Cited in a Gelman piece, sort-of Our July paper Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the …

2020-11-22: Acta Scientifica... …is so desperate they solicit my “unpublished rhetoric” for the next issue. I would …

2020-11-16: Optimizing Pandas A clear and compelling example of vectorizing pandas code for 1700x speedup.

2020-11-14:

2020-11-09: Recent climate thread by the always wonderful @KHayhoe, responding to the usual. Good videos too. …

2020-11-09: xkcd.com/808/ “Eventually, arguing that thesee things work means arguing that modern capitalism …

2020-11-09: I’m not sure “reblog” is a thin in µ.blog, but: social.ayjay.org/2020/11/0… …

2020-11-09: Ten Thousand xkcd.com/1053/ That said, watching the US President have dozens of these moments as he …

2020-11-02: Sometimes in the evening, I return to do some work. But it’s late and hard to focus. I begin …

2020-11-02: Base Rates www.smbc-comics.com/comic/ris… HTT @rplzzz

2020-10-31: 🗓🖋#mbnov ‘’Once upon a planet dreary / Came a rocket engine cheery / On a flight to test a theory / …

2020-10-31: @ayjay on children's crusades This got my attention both because of its current echoes and because he’s right - I’ve …

2020-10-29: Not Even Wrong l’ve seen some of the bizarre papers described in Maddie Blender’s article in Vice. …

2020-10-27: Paper in a Day (@DevyBee) Dorothy Bishop, The Paper-in-a-Day Approach describes a once-a-year exercise her lab does to do a …

2020-10-23: Hubble bias When the Hubble Space Telescope allocation team launched dual-anonymous peer review for Hubble …

2020-10-23: Betteridge’s law of headlines: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be …

2020-10-23: How replicable is ecology? Good summary by Jeremy Fox of Alvaro’s post, with a (closed) poll, …

2020-10-23: C.S. Lewis on Outrage 📚💬 Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper. Then suppose that something turns up …

2020-10-21: Listening to Burnout discussion by authors Emily Nagoski and Amelia Nagoski on Brené Brown. 📚💬 In …

2020-10-21: Andrew Sullivan on Algorithms vs. Democracy From his essay We Are All Algorithms Now. Don’t get your news from social media. For Facebook …

2020-10-20: Epistemic Humility: COVID19 A refreshing disclaimer from yesterday’s BMJ: Covid-19’s known unknowns Competing …

2020-10-18: Linda Fallacy? Proposed Constitutional Amendments (VA) QUESTION 2: Should an automobile or pickup …

2020-10-16: Vox article on Replication & Replication Markets Vox’s Kelsey Piper discusses the replication crisis in “Future Perfect” this week, …

2020-09-30: Ode to our forecasters: What a Year! 54K surveys, 42K trades, 3K claims; Dedicated ‘casters, …

2020-09-30: I reviewed the Watanabe manuscript. I think it’s worth a follow-up. Am I missing something? …

2020-09-30: This sounds fantastic. Why haven’t I done this? www.natureindex.com/news-blog…

2020-09-29: Karl Popper on Social Media As for Adler, I was much impressed by a personal experience. Once, in …

2020-09-22: Saturn. First attempt, just holding my iphone near the eyepiece and clicking photos until one …

2020-09-17: Science is getting harder to read. More jargon, more acronyms, worse writing. All those reduce …

2020-08-27: New PDF compares accuracy of 7 key #COVID-19 models. On mean absolute % error for total deaths …

2020-08-26: Of the various kinds of misinformation during this pandemic, at least I was spared relatives touting …

2020-08-26: Short well-written plea to actually read the article. I’ve been trying Readup, which is like a …

2020-08-22: Solitude and Leadership, by Deresiewicz Solitude and Leadership By William Deresiewicz | March 1, 2010 Reminders for my increasingly …

2020-08-21: Estrogen, COVID-19, and Rapid Reviews In my day, philosophers encountered birth control pills at least twice during training. First and …

2020-07-27: What is a replication In a recent Nature essay urging pre-registering replications, Brian Nosek and Tim Errington note: …

2020-07-27: What is the purpose of retraction? Clearly it’s appropriate in cases of fraud or negligence. …

2020-07-23: Retractable masks? In a piece about about masks, reporter Cat Ferguson blogs at @somethingstillbugsme@substack.com: To …

2020-07-23: For COVID forecasting, remember the superforecasters at Good Judgment. Currently placing US deaths …

2020-07-23: Alan Jacobs with a cautionary tale about assuming news is representative of reality, and remembering …

2020-07-21: Protests and COVID Worried about #COVID, I did not join #BLM protests. Even if outdoors + masks, marches bunch up, …

2020-07-20: Good news: Despite case rise, excess deaths have been dropping, nearly back to 100% after high 142%. …

2020-07-17: I saw my old and much-loved Monash colleague #”ChrisWallace” …

2020-07-17: Open access is good, unless you're a journal? Bob Horn sent me this news in Nature NEWS 16 JULY 2020 Open-access Plan S to allow publishing in …

2020-07-13: AI Bias Dr. Rachel Thomas writes, When we think about AI, we need to think about complicated real-world …

2020-07-08: Rapid Reviews: COVID-19 The announcement of RR:C19 seems a critical step forward. Similar to Hopkins’ Novel …

2020-07-03: Unsurprisingly, popular media is more popular: A new study finds that “peer-reviewed …

2020-06-25: PDF: Systematically, the NYT COVID-19 counts are high, & CovidTracker’s low. Two more in …

2020-06-25: From @Broniatowski: Postdoc with the MOSI project at the Institute for Data Democracy & Politics …

2020-06-23: Old tabs: found a nice recommendation from one of our @replicationmarkets forecasters, on their …

2020-06-08: A solid Rodney Brooks essay on peer review value and flaws, from inside. No solution, but worth …

2020-06-08: I’m not accustomed to saying anything with certainty after only one or two observations. …

2020-06-05: PDF: US intervention timing simulations using county-level & mobility data: “had these …

2020-06-05: PDF: Simulation: age separation reduced C19 mortality even fixing interactions. “Separating …

2020-06-03: New short PDF Heparin and C19 reviews ~2K Spanish C19 patients. Heparin halved mortality after …

2020-06-02: A few COVID-19 PDFs A non-random sample of new PDFs whose titles caught my eye yesterday. Based on a quick scan, so I …

2020-05-22: Oops: - ‘astonishingly, the forensic medical professional had not died at all. [And] they “do …

2020-05-21: Innumeracy: In mid-Feb I sent my team home due to C19 worries. ~1week later someone at the office …

2020-05-21: Grumpy Geophysicist argues against public preprint servers. > Confirmation bias is a risk within …

2020-03-11: Pro-active Replication Science Is Hard Nature Communications has an inspiring piece about a DARPA project baking …

2019-12-07: Aschwanden's teaser subtitle: wisdom in the scientific crowd Science writer Christine Aschwanden (@cragcrest) just published a nice summary of the October paper …

2019-12-02: Horse betting and @ReplicationMkts A friend sent a May 2018 Bloomberg article by Kit Chellel, “The gambler who cracked the horse-racing …

2019-11-19: Greenland on Cognition, Causality, and Statistics Sander Greenland argues that all mistakes of P-values will be reproduced in any other method, …

2019-11-19: Happy to hear “diversity of thought” called out early in today’s “Inclusive Leaders” training at …