Charles R. Twardy

Follow @ctwardy on Micro.blog.

Bayesian

COVID19

LLMs

Replication Markets

causation

clear thinking

data science

faith

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forecasting

history

information theory

politics

preprints

programming

science

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: The greatest of these is Search A Berkeley Computer Science lab just uploaded “Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with …

: Alan Jacobs again: Hatred alone is immortal. Ah, the problem with the world. But Chesterton …

: ‘Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.’ – Ambrose Bierce

: ❝  For Ockham, the principle of simplicity limits the multiplication of hypotheses not necessarily …

: Bari Weiss: Why DEI Must End for Good I’m afraid she’s right. Worth watching or reading …

: The blurry JPEG ❝  LLMs aren't people, but they act a lot more like people than logical machines. ~Ethan Mollick …

: A few good things in psychology ❝  So if you hear that 60% of papers in your field don’t replicate, shouldn’t you care a lot …

: ❝  Would studies like this be better if they always did all their stats perfectly? Of course. But …

: Replication ❝  And that’s why mistakes had to be corrected. BASF fully recognized that Ostwald would be annoyed …

: A friend sent me 250th Anniversary Boston Tea Party tea for the 16th. The tea must be authentic: …

: Intelligible Failure Adam Russell created the DARPA SCORE replication project. Here he reflects on the importance of …

: Came across an older Alan Jacobs post: For those who have been formed largely by the mythical core …

: Today I listened to Sam Harris and read Alan Jacobs on Israel & Gaza. Highly recommended. (With …

: Huh. Moonlight is redder than sunlight. The “silvery moon” is an illusion. …

: This looks like a good way to appreciate the beautiful bright thing that periodically makes it hard …

: Do your own research Sabine Hossenfelder’s Do your own research… but do it right is an excellent guide to …

: Strong Towns & Ideological Purity Good essay by Peter Norton Why we need Strong Towns critiquing a Current Affairs piece by Allison …

: Essentialism In a recent newsletter, Jesse Singal notes that recent MAGA gains among Democratic constituencies …

: Unforced bias In The bias we swim in, Linda McIver notes: Recently I saw a post going around about how ChatGPT …

: Actual history (Cowen) Reflection for sheltered people like me: ❝  For my entire life, and a bit more, … …

: Alan Jacobs, The HedgeHog Review, “David Hume’s Guide to Social Media: Emancipation by the …

: Alan Jacobs reminds us to eschew easy opinions (re: Supreme court here): …

: …in which minutes are kept and hours are lost. 😉 Geol. Soc. of Wash. 1999

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: AstralCodex on nerds and hipsters:

: Revisited my old post about reconstructing Syrotuck’s (lost) Lost Person Data. Mediocre …

: Bookmark: Haidt on Why the mental health of liberal girls sank first and fastest. Reverse CBT …

: Misunderstanding the replication crisis Based on the abstract, it seems Alexander Bird’s Understanding the replication crisis as a …

: LOTR Musing Fascinating discussion of Lord of the Rings: Adam Roberts musings on Denethor’s death sees a …

: Alan Jacobs on The sovereignty of mercy in Middle Earth (and beyond).

: I understand?

: I enjoyed this discussion of the John Snow cholera story, inspired by Christmas cookies. …

: [To fix peer review, break it into stages], a short Nature opinion by Olava Amaral. Separate …

: We are what we ... ❝  We’ve always heard that we are what we eat. I think it’s somewhat true of food, but …

: Bookmark: Clean Code in Python by Nik Tomazik Clean Code by Robert Martin is Java-oriented. Tomazik …

: Well that’s cool. Gravitational lensing. Supernova at 3 stages of its life, all at once. …

: Interesting look at speed gains in Python 3.11, by Beshr Kayali. (Who has a microblog! …

: Sonnet against entropy Thanks to Ewan McNay for alerting me to this gem: The worm drives helically through the wood And …

: AI, Art, & Sadness Fascinating and sobering AI reflection by Daniel Miessler. AI Art is doing what we thought would …

: Prehistory of social media Kevin Driscoll’s Prehistory of social media is a lovely short reminder of the 2400 baud days. …

: STEM appeal ADSEI’s Linda McIver on swapping toy problems for real ones: ❝  I shifted the subject …

: The only way to win Janelle Shane on people hacking GPT-3 chatbots: A curious game, Dr. Falken…

: Alan Jacobs’ Two versions of covid skepticism summarizes a longer piece by Madeleine Kearns. …

: Jacobs on LeGuin & forgiveness * Art is only possible with freedom. * Hyper-critical Jacobs on …

: Tolkein I really enjoyed the weaving of biography and lesser-known Middle Earth history in this Smithsonian …

: Alice Dreger reflects on two recent books, and on bookstores, “In sharp contrast to the social …

: Novelty Search and the Problem with Objectives , Lehman & Stanley, 2011. ❝  the more …

: I’ve had Alan Jacobs’ self-understanding and resistance in a browser tab for awhile. …

: Lightning at Ocean City

: State Department & Intelligence CNN writes: Only one intelligence agency appears to have accurately predicted that the Ukrainian …

: ~From AI Weirdness subscribers’ list. But here’s the companion public post.

: Moderate Manifesto How did I not hear about Strong Towns before? A short manifesto for engaged persuading. ❝  If you …

: Greenfield: Orwell diagnoses our culture wars ❝  Orwell, himself a socialist, argues first that “Socialism in its developed form is a theory …

: Compass Rose Barn

: Ed Wright (d.2022) I turned to µ.blog this morning because my inbox told me a former colleague had died. I hadn’t …

: i’m not sure what this says about me other than gosh it was a nice day…

: Loved this whimsy.

: Skywatching 🌌 New used scope 🔭 I had a lovely hour last night chasing the Orion Nebula with my 16yo at a local soccer field with …

: "Maybe crypto is best understood as a new set of incentives." ~Meissler I see crypto as dystopian by design, but Daniel Meissler’s re-imagining at least lets me …

: ❝  If you find you always agree with the liberal or conservative party, then that is your true …

: I signed into µ.blog to bookmark some tech piece and found instead that Paul Farmer has died.

: ❝  If you must write about us, at least give a damn about us, Sound advice from Whitney Kimball …

: "We need to talk about Cosby" This seems so very Catholic: ❝  But as Bell’s wise documentary also makes clear, there wasn’t …

: Python Anti-Pattern: Default Mutable Arguments @SourceryAI found a bad habit I didn’t know I …

: ❝  When we’re good at participatory sense-making, we can become societies that support each member, …

: Alan Alda & Science Communication ❝  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could train scientists to be communicators and be personal like this …

: Periodically a song from “The Greatest Showman” is on my mental background music. I just …

: ❝  Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place. Therefore, if you write the …

: Bookmark: Alan Jacobs excerpting a recent Rowan Williams essay in The New Statesman. Education, …

: Dear Self: Remember periodically to reread Dorothy Bishop’s (@DeevyBee) recent reflection on …

: Huh! Quite OK Image compression provides a simple fast algorithm and format that seems to benchmark …

: ...much exaggerated. Headlines about the death of theory are philosopher clickbait. Fortunately Laura Spinney’s …

: Marvel’s The Eternals is not my favorite, but I’m liking it a bit more after Film Theory …

: Model Testing, Mayo, Fisher, Bickel Deborah Mayo has a new post on Model Testing and p-values vs. posteriors. I haven’t read …

: Leaky vax & evolution [swapped first two paragraphs; tweaks for clarity] So this Philosophy Stackexchange answer by …

: Discovered my new favorite Thanksgiving poem/prayer, from Malcom Guite: …

: Janelle Shane asks GPT-3 what else besides water to bring on a hike. More here

: Dashboards are the opposite. They’re often data, looking for a problem. ~Ben Stancil

: Like so many of his interviews, this with McChrystal looks fascinating. I found the beginning of the …

: Good essay. I did not know the tragic Aaron Swartz story. This struck me too: Perhaps the KGB would …

: Seems to me that claiming it’s “illegal and unconstitutional” to vax soldiers …

: readup.com “The Ancient Art of Using Time Well”

: Excellent 12-minute presentation & performance by Joy Buolamwini on AI bias. From 2019: …

: Hard to have nice things The mouseover for reviews on “Trusted [hah] Consumer Reviews”: sigh

: Voice for compassionate harm reduction “when truth itself has supply-chain problems.” readup.com …

: In the last couple of years I’ve discovered both Conversations with Tyler and Sullivan’s …

: Power

: Not Fully Vaccinated This is 5-10x more dramatic than I thought. About half of Virginians (~2/3 of adults) are fully …

: 🔖 Old-fashioned confusion, a forecasting blog by Foretell forecaster kojif.

: 🔖 Alan Jacobs’ post, beats me. What he said. On the narrow point, there are risk-benefit …

: ❝  the reality and importance of climate change does not … excuse … avoiding questions …

: I love this Foretell comment:

: The Economist often has clever covers, but I really struggled to figure out the metaphor here. …

: Watching Sydney’s Delta cases repeat the early-phase exponential growth of Melbourne, …

: Acapella Science’s 🧬 Evo Devo is just so good. (So many others too.)

: The July 5 Lancet letter reaffirms the authors’ earlier skeptical view of LabLeak. They cited …

: Lates NAS newsletter quotes their outgoing editor, Daniel Saarewitz, from 25 years ago: “The …

: Link rot is worse than I thought. blog.ayjay.org/the-rotti… The full Atlantic article …

: Whimsical final slide for great USPTO talk by Wm. Carlson on Tesla & the social process of …

: Latest Analytic Insider asks how analysts can help reframe national conversations … around …

: A thought on the Parlour Game (Handfield) Toby Handfield mused on a philosopher requesting advice about an upcoming talk: I don’t know any of …

: CSET has noted that Chinese and US fighter pilots are losing to AI. Some of us were doing that back …

: Arnold Kling: 2021 book titles show epistemological crisis. This may fit with a historical pattern. …

: Jacobs’ Heather Wishart interviews Gen. McChrystal on teams and innovation: I think our …

: Pandas is wonderful, but Haki Benita reminds us it’s often better to aggregate in the database …

: Dan Miessler reflects on the value of shared culture: I think young men lacking a shared culture …

: David Peterson suggests metascience drop its implicit unity-of-science approach: If reformers want …

: On K-means Clustering hljs.highlightAll(); Background This was inspired by Paul Harrison’s (pfh’s) 2021 post, …

: Alan Jacobs today: Wondering … what to read? … Ask yourself one question: Does this …

: Vergangenheitsaufarbeitung “   The Germans decided that discomfort could make them stronger by creating guardrails …

: Measuring bot misinfo on facebook - DANMASK-19 Not exactly a surprise, but Ayers et al measure a …

: Sigh

: Re-updated CDC numbers, and self-critique. Re: earlier posts: The apparent discrepancy November/December discrepancy between higher …

: Periodically reread SlateStarCodex’ A failure, but not of prediction. There is so much gold in …

: Finishing Off the Beaten Path by Gustavo Bondoni 📚 A delightful collection of SF/Fantasy stories …

: Currently reading: Breaking Bread with the Dead by Alan Jacobs (µblog @ayday) 📚

: Bias and Noise A clear essay by Kahneman, Sibony, & Sunstein. Executives in the insurance …

: In a long post on sustained irrationality in the markets, Vitalik Buterin describes his experience …

: Readibility or performance? In How performance became the nemesis of secure Python code, Dima Kotik …

: Broniatowski on why I fail. Also, ending the pandemic. Yesterday I commented on a cousin’s post sharing a claim about 9 reported child vaccine …

: Airborne / VAERS Thanks to Mike Bishop for alerting me to Jiminez’ 100-tweet thread and Lancet paper on the …

: Fact-checking win Surprisingly, fact-checking prompted Iran’s Supreme Leader to retract his mistaken claim about …

: …we are left with the problem that… Social scientists think of themselves as …

: Avoiding the High Cost of Peer Review Failures Wilderness & Environmental Medicine’s editor Neil Pollock frequently writes an …

: Flu has nearly disappeared worldwide durin the COVID pandemic The distancing measures to prevent …

: Wellerstein on nuclear secrecy: Interview in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about his new book 📚 Restricted Data. A thoughtful, …

: Predicting replicability: scientists are 73% accurate Congratulations to Michael Gordon et al for their paper in PLoS One! This paper combines the results …

: Sullivan compares COVID to AIDS, Camus, and . One person thinking through what vaccination & far …

: Ben Kuo saved a life using Google Earth and clear thinking. www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle…

: An image of West Coast data science: I keep climbing the leaderboard! … Life is pretty …

: Fantastic Anachronism Q1 2021 I continue to be astonished by how much “Alvaro de Menard” reads. See his Q1 2021 links …

: www.economist.com A big reason spelling systems never seem to get overhauled in more liberal …

: www.economist.com Neither are face-recognition systems or sentencing software bought by those who …

: Emotional Epidemiology In this letter, Heidi Larson & David Broniatowski argue that, vaccine hesitancy is not the same …

: Volcano, and other links I have lost more time than I care to admit watching the volcano in Geldingsadalur. It’s …

: I’m sorry to say I found this reflection by Adam Briggle almost entirely uninteresting. Of …

: Brand defense; vendoring culture; memory & notes In biographies and brands, after some clear examples Jacobs notes that many accusations of …

: COVID19 Origins Debate | Metaforecast HTT Nuño Sempere’s January forecasting newsletter. And be sure to check out his marvelous …

: Excel error kills 1,500 The Excel row-limit inadvertently prevented contact tracing for two weeks in the UK, causing a …

: SAT, Psychic AI, Seuss Sullivan on SAT Killing the SAT Means Hurting Minorities While I’m thinking of Sullivan, this …

: Health literacy Worth remembering: “Among the people I work with in medical schools, there’s a strong adherence to …

: AJ on Impermanence Key quotes from this post: Snell: incompatibility comes for every abandoned app eventually Rendle: …

: AJ on Conservatism Inc., +more Worth reading in entirety, Alan Jacobs reflects on an essay by Douthat: Such a system, predictably, …

: Stop Thinking & Get Certified Slogan on an ad for scrum training. Featured in the the 2015 talk “Agile is Dead”. Dave …

: Gelman on Bad Science for Good Gelman’s recent short post on Relevance of Bad Science for Good Science includes a handy Top10 …

: Work/Life Balance

: US Insurrectionist Movement? January 6 moved Randy Pherson at Globalytica to ask if there is an active insurrectionist movement …

: What is your theory, again? Just re-found this @ayjay essay in an old tab. The question I would ask churches that are …

: Kasparov vs Deep Blue, & techno-determinism too Writing for IEEE Spectrum, Joanna Goodrich says that Deep Blue beat Kasparov because was just so …

: My People Sam Rocha, In America Magazine

: Well, this seems backwards. Hopefully Janelle Shane will have a delightful and silly riposte. …

: Huh. My age group (45+) has about 25% more deaths this year - roughly the same excess % as for 85+. …

: Updated CDC numbers CDC total deaths snapshot: December weekly #s gained about 4,500 vs. two weeks ago: there are now 4 …

: “Either we can all be cold… or we can live in Florida.”

: The thing I read today was Yudkowsky on r/WallStreetBets - I did not know that.

: Ritchie on Sloppy Pandemic Science Essay worth reading in its entirety: The Great Reinforcer by Stuart Ritchie. To be sure, out of the …

: It seems flu counts really are extraordinarily low. Sure, we’re missing cases because people …

: A good column by our SVP for technology & innovation.

: This was a sobering take on possible downsides of Universal Basic Income. HTT Bryan Caplan.

: Commie Vaccine Meteors A friend notes that the US has a long of equating vaccines and public health with commie …

: So, we tried this. It’s good, though a bit sweeter than I was wanting today. Fun! …

: Bookmarking A methodology for agile data science by Edwin Thoen (ch.5 of Agile Data Science with R). …

: Bookmarking Why Kanban for data science. Two core issues: > …tasks have uncertain outcomes …

: Prayers of the Faithful [Edited 2021-02-02 to shorten and include Alexis’ suggestion. -crt] [2021-05-23 Updated the …

: Immortal time bias A subtle trap in treatment studies. I hadn’t heard of it, and had to follow …

: Don't do cryptocurrency It seems like the current crypto market may be a giant fraud. This fits my mildly informed …

: Antifa, q, redirect, big tech Just capturing a facebook post (screenshot) - I went into the internet archive to see what used to …

: Opportunity costs. What would happen if the Dems made a strategic compromise on Roe v Wade? If you were Biden, what …

: Wrong About The winner of the Metaculus Li-Wenliang COVID-19 forecasting tournament was wrong about …

: Monk on American Democracy Aristotle argued that an enduring republic required a balance between democracy (popular …

: From Pale Rider, Afterword: …and novelists try to put themselves [in] the heads of those who …

: Monk on China Conspiracy Theories - April 2020 I was reviewing this old interview with Australia’s Paul Monk, covering Coronavirus, China, …

: A touching, real conversation on faith, death, grief, culture wars, the Christmas season, …

: I’m not a fan of the XKCD “free speech” strip. I think it fails the reflexivity …

: Another great piece at Fantastic Anachronism: Are Experts Real. I hadn’t heard about N=59. 😱 …

: More vs Slack In Slack and Zoom were distracting…, John Lacy notes: * We found that asynchronous communication …

: Sitting at a desk all day, it’s easy to start feeling like a brainless polyp Walking as as …

: Richard Hanania: > A remarkably high percentage of bad economic takes can be attributed to people …

: A Covid Puzzle Resolved In a discussion with @Somensi about excess deaths, I was puzzled by an apparent discrepancy between …

: Concentrate An essay by Grand Master Jonathan Rowan, courtesy of Readup. But, most of all, I miss …

: e.e. cummings “next to of course god america i love you land of the pilgrims’ and so forth oh say can you see by …

: Sounds like a fun blog, just shouldn’t be masquerading as a journal. …

: Herzog & Sullivan: Where Have All the Lesbians Gone? Instead of saying, “I’m a woman and I reject gender roles,” NB ideology says, in effect, “I reject …

: The Dish Podcast Excellent discussion between Sullivan and Yglesias. Had to grit my teeth through some of Yglesias’ …

: Cited in a Gelman piece, sort-of Our July paper Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the …

: Acta Scientifica... …is so desperate they solicit my “unpublished rhetoric” for the next issue. I would …

: Optimizing Pandas A clear and compelling example of vectorizing pandas code for 1700x speedup.

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: Recent climate thread by the always wonderful @KHayhoe, responding to the usual. Good videos too. …

: xkcd.com/808/ “Eventually, arguing that thesee things work means arguing that modern capitalism …

: I’m not sure “reblog” is a thin in µ.blog, but: social.ayjay.org/2020/11/0… …

: Ten Thousand xkcd.com/1053/ That said, watching the US President have dozens of these moments as he …

: Sometimes in the evening, I return to do some work. But it’s late and hard to focus. I begin …

: Base Rates www.smbc-comics.com/comic/ris… HTT @rplzzz

: 🗓🖋#mbnov ‘’Once upon a planet dreary / Came a rocket engine cheery / On a flight to test a theory / …

: @ayjay on children's crusades This got my attention both because of its current echoes and because he’s right - I’ve …

: Not Even Wrong l’ve seen some of the bizarre papers described in Maddie Blender’s article in Vice. …

: Paper in a Day (@DevyBee) Dorothy Bishop, The Paper-in-a-Day Approach describes a once-a-year exercise her lab does to do a …

: Hubble bias When the Hubble Space Telescope allocation team launched dual-anonymous peer review for Hubble …

: Betteridge’s law of headlines: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be …

: How replicable is ecology? Good summary by Jeremy Fox of Alvaro’s post, with a (closed) poll, …

: C.S. Lewis on Outrage 📚💬 Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper. Then suppose that something turns up …

: Listening to Burnout discussion by authors Emily Nagoski and Amelia Nagoski on Brené Brown. 📚💬 In …

: Andrew Sullivan on Algorithms vs. Democracy From his essay We Are All Algorithms Now. Don’t get your news from social media. For Facebook …

: Epistemic Humility: COVID19 A refreshing disclaimer from yesterday’s BMJ: Covid-19’s known unknowns Competing …

: Linda Fallacy? Proposed Constitutional Amendments (VA) QUESTION 2: Should an automobile or pickup …

: Vox article on Replication & Replication Markets Vox’s Kelsey Piper discusses the replication crisis in “Future Perfect” this week, …

: Ode to our forecasters: What a Year! 54K surveys, 42K trades, 3K claims; Dedicated ‘casters, …

: I reviewed the Watanabe manuscript. I think it’s worth a follow-up. Am I missing something? …

: This sounds fantastic. Why haven’t I done this? www.natureindex.com/news-blog…

: Karl Popper on Social Media As for Adler, I was much impressed by a personal experience. Once, in …

: Saturn. First attempt, just holding my iphone near the eyepiece and clicking photos until one …

: Science is getting harder to read. More jargon, more acronyms, worse writing. All those reduce …

: New PDF compares accuracy of 7 key #COVID-19 models. On mean absolute % error for total deaths …

: Of the various kinds of misinformation during this pandemic, at least I was spared relatives touting …

: Short well-written plea to actually read the article. I’ve been trying Readup, which is like a …

: Solitude and Leadership, by Deresiewicz Solitude and Leadership By William Deresiewicz | March 1, 2010 Reminders for my increasingly …

: Estrogen, COVID-19, and Rapid Reviews In my day, philosophers encountered birth control pills at least twice during training. First and …

: What is a replication In a recent Nature essay urging pre-registering replications, Brian Nosek and Tim Errington note: …

: What is the purpose of retraction? Clearly it’s appropriate in cases of fraud or negligence. …

: Retractable masks? In a piece about about masks, reporter Cat Ferguson blogs at @somethingstillbugsme@substack.com: To …

: For COVID forecasting, remember the superforecasters at Good Judgment. Currently placing US deaths …

: Alan Jacobs with a cautionary tale about assuming news is representative of reality, and remembering …

: Protests and COVID Worried about #COVID, I did not join #BLM protests. Even if outdoors + masks, marches bunch up, …

: Good news: Despite case rise, excess deaths have been dropping, nearly back to 100% after high 142%. …

: I saw my old and much-loved Monash colleague #”ChrisWallace” …

: Open access is good, unless you're a journal? Bob Horn sent me this news in Nature NEWS 16 JULY 2020 Open-access Plan S to allow publishing in …

: AI Bias Dr. Rachel Thomas writes, When we think about AI, we need to think about complicated real-world …

: Rapid Reviews: COVID-19 The announcement of RR:C19 seems a critical step forward. Similar to Hopkins’ Novel …

: Unsurprisingly, popular media is more popular: A new study finds that “peer-reviewed …

: PDF: Systematically, the NYT COVID-19 counts are high, & CovidTracker’s low. Two more in …

: From @Broniatowski: Postdoc with the MOSI project at the Institute for Data Democracy & Politics …

: Old tabs: found a nice recommendation from one of our @replicationmarkets forecasters, on their …

: A solid Rodney Brooks essay on peer review value and flaws, from inside. No solution, but worth …

: I’m not accustomed to saying anything with certainty after only one or two observations. …

: PDF: US intervention timing simulations using county-level & mobility data: “had these …

: PDF: Simulation: age separation reduced C19 mortality even fixing interactions. “Separating …

: New short PDF Heparin and C19 reviews ~2K Spanish C19 patients. Heparin halved mortality after …

: A few COVID-19 PDFs A non-random sample of new PDFs whose titles caught my eye yesterday. Based on a quick scan, so I …

: Oops: - ‘astonishingly, the forensic medical professional had not died at all. [And] they “do …

: Innumeracy: In mid-Feb I sent my team home due to C19 worries. ~1week later someone at the office …

: Grumpy Geophysicist argues against public preprint servers. > Confirmation bias is a risk within …

: Pro-active Replication Science Is Hard Nature Communications has an inspiring piece about a DARPA project baking …

: Aschwanden's teaser subtitle: wisdom in the scientific crowd Science writer Christine Aschwanden (@cragcrest) just published a nice summary of the October paper …

: Horse betting and @ReplicationMkts A friend sent a May 2018 Bloomberg article by Kit Chellel, “The gambler who cracked the horse-racing …

: Greenland on Cognition, Causality, and Statistics Sander Greenland argues that all mistakes of P-values will be reproduced in any other method, …

: Happy to hear “diversity of thought” called out early in today’s “Inclusive Leaders” training at …