Charles R. Twardy

Follow @ctwardy on Micro.blog.

clear thinking

faith

history

politics

science

preprints

replicability

LLMs

tech

work

data science

programming

replicaton

metascience

reproducible research

lifestyle

dystopia

screens

social media

forecasting

Replication Markets

search theory

Bayesian

COVID19

information theory

scifi

causation

: Justice & Facts ❝ If justice is not based on the facts, if principles of justice are not applied universally, there …

: Disclosure:

: The start of Cloudflare’s robots.txt file: :-) HTT: UL newsletter

: Chuck Marohn of Strong Towns writes I’m Done With Twitter, but Not for the Reasons You Might Think …

: Fooling AI Cyber-security is a broken-window fallacy, but there’s something delightful about this little …

: Timescale argues that special vector databases are the wrong idea because vectors are more like a …

: Substack | The Chronicle

: For some reason it’s hard to hold this in mind. ❝  In MAGAworld, declarative statements ... …

: Earlier AJ linked from a recent post. Insightful as usual. teachers at the margins – The Homebound …

: Bizarre editing glitch in a new Science article about possible image manipulation in Alzheimer’s …

: ❝  the peril of AI is the same as the promise of AI: it’s a thoughtlessness enabler. ❝  The …

: Interesting abstract from Herzenstein et al suggests that replicable studies are transparent and …

: Daniel Lakens on why we won’t move beyond p<.05. Key: few really offered alternatives. Part …

: In-depth review of pending Metascience reforms at NIH by Stuart Buck at GoodScience. Excellent …

: This is promising: you can run LLM inference and training on 13W of power. I’ve yet to read …

: Daniel Miessler suggests the Left is fueling Trump with a defeatist and anti-American narrative. I …

: The Shackles of Convenience, from Dan Miessler.

: Found an old tab with a reminder that misinfo isn’t just on the Right. I like being wrong?

: Chesterton - on The Family ❝  The best way that a man could test his readiness to encounter the common variety of mankind would …

: In praise of idleness - Bertrand Russel ❝  The modern man thinks that everything ought to be done for the sake of something else, and never …

: My neighbor’s astonishingly vivid azalea

: Starting Harrow by Tamsyn Muir. 📚

: Finished The Difficult Subject by (pen name) Molly Macallen, book 2 in the Maddy Shanks mystery …

: Wim Vanderbauwhede estimates ChatGPT uses ~60x as much energy as Google search. (Geometric mean of …

: “The first step is to draw a diagram. When you draw a diagram you’re loading it into your GPU. That …

: The analogical case with humans would be where established authors, for example, sued new and …

: ❝  Consider that Amazon has had to cap the number of self-published “books” an author can submit to …

: Infant Mortality & Decline of the West ❝  Infant mortality, the telltale metric that led him to predict the Soviet collapse half a century …

: ❝  this plutocratic assumption behind progressive fads An arresting phrase from Chesterton, …

: The greatest of these is Search A Berkeley Computer Science lab just uploaded “Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with …

: Alan Jacobs again: Hatred alone is immortal. Ah, the problem with the world. But Chesterton …

: ‘Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.’ – Ambrose Bierce

: ❝  For Ockham, the principle of simplicity limits the multiplication of hypotheses not necessarily …

: Bari Weiss: Why DEI Must End for Good I’m afraid she’s right. Worth watching or reading …

: The blurry JPEG ❝  LLMs aren't people, but they act a lot more like people than logical machines. ~Ethan Mollick …

: A few good things in psychology ❝  So if you hear that 60% of papers in your field don’t replicate, shouldn't you care a lot about …

: ❝  Would studies like this be better if they always did all their stats perfectly? Of course. But …

: Replication ❝  And that’s why mistakes had to be corrected. BASF fully recognized that Ostwald would be annoyed …

: A friend sent me 250th Anniversary Boston Tea Party tea for the 16th. The tea must be authentic: …

: Intelligible Failure Adam Russell created the DARPA SCORE replication project. Here he reflects on the importance of …

: Came across an older Alan Jacobs post: For those who have been formed largely by the mythical core …

: Today I listened to Sam Harris and read Alan Jacobs on Israel & Gaza. Highly recommended. (With …

: Huh. Moonlight is redder than sunlight. The “silvery moon” is an illusion. …

: This looks like a good way to appreciate the beautiful bright thing that periodically makes it hard …

: Do your own research Sabine Hossenfelder’s Do your own research… but do it right is an excellent guide to …

: Strong Towns & Ideological Purity Good essay by Peter Norton Why we need Strong Towns critiquing a Current Affairs piece by Allison …

: Essentialism In a recent newsletter, Jesse Singal notes that recent MAGA gains among Democratic constituencies …

: Unforced bias In The bias we swim in, Linda McIver notes: Recently I saw a post going around about how ChatGPT …

: Actual history (Cowen) Reflection for sheltered people like me: ❝  For my entire life, and a bit more, … …

: Alan Jacobs, The HedgeHog Review, “David Hume’s Guide to Social Media: Emancipation by the …

: Alan Jacobs reminds us to eschew easy opinions (re: Supreme court here): …

: …in which minutes are kept and hours are lost. 😉 Geol. Soc. of Wash. 1999

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: AstralCodex on nerds and hipsters:

: Revisited my old post about reconstructing Syrotuck’s (lost) Lost Person Data. Mediocre …

: Bookmark: Haidt on Why the mental health of liberal girls sank first and fastest. Reverse CBT …

: Misunderstanding the replication crisis Based on the abstract, it seems Alexander Bird’s Understanding the replication crisis as a …

: LOTR Musing Fascinating discussion of Lord of the Rings: Adam Roberts musings on Denethor’s death sees a …

: Alan Jacobs on The sovereignty of mercy in Middle Earth (and beyond).

: I understand?

: I enjoyed this discussion of the John Snow cholera story, inspired by Christmas cookies. …

: To fix peer review, break it into stages, a short Nature opinion by Olava Amaral. Separate …

: We are what we ... ❝  We've always heard that we are what we eat. I think it's somewhat true of food, but even more so …

: Bookmark: Clean Code in Python by Nik Tomazik Clean Code by Robert Martin is Java-oriented. Tomazik …

: Well that’s cool. Gravitational lensing. Supernova at 3 stages of its life, all at once. …

: Interesting look at speed gains in Python 3.11, by Beshr Kayali. (Who has a microblog! …

: Sonnet against entropy Thanks to Ewan McNay for alerting me to this gem: The worm drives helically through the wood And …

: AI, Art, & Sadness Fascinating and sobering AI reflection by Daniel Miessler. AI Art is doing what we thought would …

: Prehistory of social media Kevin Driscoll’s Prehistory of social media is a lovely short reminder of the 2400 baud days. …

: STEM appeal ADSEI’s Linda McIver on swapping toy problems for real ones: ❝  I shifted the subject ... …

: The only way to win Janelle Shane on people hacking GPT-3 chatbots: A curious game, Dr. Falken…

: Alan Jacobs' Two versions of covid skepticism summarizes a longer piece by Madeleine Kearns. Both …

: Jacobs on LeGuin & forgiveness Art is only possible with freedom. Hyper-critical Jacobs on …

: Tolkein I really enjoyed the weaving of biography and lesser-known Middle Earth history in this Smithsonian …

: Alice Dreger reflects on two recent books, and on bookstores, “In sharp contrast to the social …

: Novelty Search and the Problem with Objectives , Lehman & Stanley, 2011. ❝  the more …

: I’ve had Alan Jacobs' self-understanding and resistance in a browser tab for awhile. …

: Lightning at Ocean City

: State Department & Intelligence CNN writes: Only one intelligence agency appears to have accurately predicted that the Ukrainian …

: ~From AI Weirdness [subscribers' …

: Moderate Manifesto How did I not hear about Strong Towns before? A short manifesto for engaged persuading. ❝  If you …

: Greenfield: Orwell diagnoses our culture wars ❝  Orwell, himself a socialist, argues first that "Socialism in its developed form is a theory …

: Compass Rose Barn

: Ed Wright (d.2022) I turned to µ.blog this morning because my inbox told me a former colleague had died. I hadn’t …

: i’m not sure what this says about me other than gosh it was a nice day…

: Loved this whimsy.

: Skywatching 🌌 New used scope 🔭 I had a lovely hour last night chasing the Orion Nebula with my 16yo at a local soccer field with …

: "Maybe crypto is best understood as a new set of incentives." ~Meissler I see crypto as dystopian by design, but Daniel Meissler’s re-imagining at least lets me …

: ❝  If you find you always agree with the liberal or conservative party, then that is your true …

: I signed into µ.blog to bookmark some tech piece and found instead that Paul Farmer has died.

: ❝  If you must write about us, at least give a damn about us, Sound advice from [Whitney Kimball …

: "We need to talk about Cosby" This seems so very Catholic: ❝  But as Bell’s wise documentary also makes clear, there wasn’t …

: Python Anti-Pattern: Default Mutable Arguments @SourceryAI found a bad habit I didn’t know I …

: ❝  When we’re good at participatory sense-making, we can become societies that support each member, …

: Alan Alda & Science Communication ❝  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could train scientists to be communicators and be personal like this …

: Periodically a song from “The Greatest Showman” is on my mental background music. I just …

: ❝  Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place. Therefore, if you write the …

: Bookmark: Alan Jacobs excerpting a recent Rowan Williams essay in The New Statesman. Education, …

: Dear Self: Remember periodically to reread Dorothy Bishop’s (@DeevyBee) recent reflection on …

: Huh! Quite OK Image compression provides a simple fast algorithm and format that seems to benchmark …

: ...much exaggerated. Headlines about the death of theory are philosopher clickbait. Fortunately Laura Spinney’s …

: Marvel’s The Eternals is not my favorite, but I’m liking it a bit more after Film Theory …

: Model Testing, Mayo, Fisher, Bickel Deborah Mayo has a new post on Model Testing and p-values vs. posteriors. I haven’t read …

: Leaky vax & evolution [swapped first two paragraphs; tweaks for clarity] So this Philosophy Stackexchange answer by …

: Discovered my new favorite Thanksgiving poem/prayer, from Malcom Guite: …

: Janelle Shane asks GPT-3 what else besides water to bring on a hike. More here

: Dashboards are the opposite. They’re often data, looking for a problem. ~Ben Stancil

: Like so many of his interviews, this with McChrystal looks fascinating. I found the beginning of the …

: Good essay. I did not know the tragic Aaron Swartz story. This struck me too: Perhaps the KGB would …

: Seems to me that claiming it’s “illegal and unconstitutional” to vax soldiers …

: readup.com “The Ancient Art of Using Time Well”

: Excellent 12-minute presentation & performance by Joy Buolamwini on AI bias. From 2019: …

: Hard to have nice things The mouseover for reviews on “Trusted [hah] Consumer Reviews”: <img …

: Voice for compassionate harm reduction “when truth itself has supply-chain problems.” readup.com …

: In the last couple of years I’ve discovered both Conversations with Tyler and Sullivan’s …

: Power

: Not Fully Vaccinated This is 5-10x more dramatic than I thought. About half of Virginians (~2/3 of adults) are fully …

: 🔖 Old-fashioned confusion, a forecasting blog by Foretell forecaster kojif.

: 🔖 Alan Jacobs' post, beats me. What he said. On the narrow point, there are risk-benefit analyses …

: ❝  the reality and importance of climate change does not ... excuse ... avoiding questions of …

: I love this Foretell comment:

: The Economist often has clever covers, but I really struggled to figure out the metaphor here. …

: Watching Sydney’s Delta cases repeat the early-phase exponential growth of Melbourne, …

: Acapella Science’s 🧬 Evo Devo is just so good. (So many others too.)

: The July 5 Lancet letter reaffirms the authors' earlier skeptical view of LabLeak. They cited some …

: Lates NAS newsletter quotes their outgoing editor, Daniel Saarewitz, from 25 years ago: “The …

: Link rot is worse than I thought. blog.ayjay.org/the-rotti… The full Atlantic article …

: Whimsical final slide for great USPTO talk by Wm. Carlson on Tesla & the social process of …

: Latest Analytic Insider asks how analysts can help reframe national conversations … around …

: A thought on the Parlour Game (Handfield) Toby Handfield mused on a philosopher requesting advice about an upcoming talk: I don’t know any of …

: CSET has noted that Chinese and US fighter pilots are losing to AI. Some of us were doing that back …

: Arnold Kling: 2021 book titles show epistemological crisis. This may fit with a historical pattern. …

: Jacobs' Heather Wishart interviews Gen. McChrystal on teams and innovation: I think our mindset …

: Pandas is wonderful, but Haki Benita reminds us it’s often better to aggregate in the database …

: Dan Miessler reflects on the value of shared culture: I think young men lacking a shared culture …

: David Peterson suggests metascience drop its implicit unity-of-science approach: If reformers want …

: On K-means Clustering hljs.highlightAll(); Background This was inspired by Paul Harrison’s (pfh’s) 2021 post, …

: Alan Jacobs today: Wondering … what to read? … Ask yourself one question: Does this …

: Vergangenheitsaufarbeitung “   The Germans decided that discomfort could make them stronger by creating guardrails …

: Measuring bot misinfo on facebook - DANMASK-19 Not exactly a surprise, but Ayers et al measure a …

: Sigh

: Re-updated CDC numbers, and self-critique. Re: earlier posts: The apparent discrepancy November/December discrepancy between higher …

: Periodically reread SlateStarCodex' A failure, but not of prediction. There is so much gold in …

: Finishing Off the Beaten Path by Gustavo Bondoni 📚 A delightful collection of SF/Fantasy stories …

: Currently reading: Breaking Bread with the Dead by Alan Jacobs (µblog @ayday) 📚

: Bias and Noise A clear essay by Kahneman, Sibony, & Sunstein. Executives in the insurance …

: In a long post on sustained irrationality in the markets, Vitalik Buterin describes his experience …

: Readibility or performance? In How performance became the nemesis of secure Python code, Dima Kotik …

: Broniatowski on why I fail. Also, ending the pandemic. Yesterday I commented on a cousin’s post sharing a claim about 9 reported child vaccine …

: Airborne / VAERS Thanks to Mike Bishop for alerting me to Jiminez' 100-tweet thread and Lancet paper on the case for …

: Fact-checking win Surprisingly, fact-checking prompted Iran’s Supreme Leader to retract his mistaken claim about …

: …we are left with the problem that… Social scientists think of themselves as …

: Avoiding the High Cost of Peer Review Failures Wilderness & Environmental Medicine’s editor Neil Pollock frequently writes an …

: Flu has nearly disappeared worldwide durin the COVID pandemic The distancing measures to prevent …

: Wellerstein on nuclear secrecy: Interview in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about his new book 📚 Restricted Data. A thoughtful, …

: Predicting replicability: scientists are 73% accurate Congratulations to Michael Gordon et al for their paper in PLoS One! This paper combines the results …

: Sullivan compares COVID to AIDS, Camus, and . One person thinking through what vaccination & far …

: Ben Kuo saved a life using Google Earth and clear thinking. www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle…

: An image of West Coast data science: I keep climbing the leaderboard! … Life is pretty …

: Fantastic Anachronism Q1 2021 I continue to be astonished by how much “Alvaro de Menard” reads. See his Q1 2021 links …

: www.economist.com A big reason spelling systems never seem to get overhauled in more liberal …

: www.economist.com Neither are face-recognition systems or sentencing software bought by those who …

: Emotional Epidemiology In this letter, Heidi Larson & David Broniatowski argue that, vaccine hesitancy is not the same …

: Volcano, and other links I have lost more time than I care to admit watching the volcano in Geldingsadalur. It’s …

: I’m sorry to say I found this reflection by Adam Briggle almost entirely uninteresting. Of …

: Brand defense; vendoring culture; memory & notes In biographies and brands, after some clear examples Jacobs notes that many accusations of …

: COVID19 Origins Debate | Metaforecast HTT Nuño Sempere’s January forecasting newsletter. And be sure to check out his marvelous …

: Excel error kills 1,500 The Excel row-limit inadvertently prevented contact tracing for two weeks in the UK, causing a …

: SAT, Psychic AI, Seuss Sullivan on SAT Killing the SAT Means Hurting Minorities While I’m thinking of Sullivan, this …

: Health literacy Worth remembering: “Among the people I work with in medical schools, there’s a strong adherence to …

: AJ on Impermanence Key quotes from this post: Snell: incompatibility comes for every abandoned app eventually Rendle: …

: AJ on Conservatism Inc., +more Worth reading in entirety, Alan Jacobs reflects on an essay by Douthat: Such a system, predictably, …

: Stop Thinking & Get Certified Slogan on an ad for scrum training. Featured in the the 2015 talk “Agile is Dead”. Dave …

: Gelman on Bad Science for Good Gelman’s recent short post on Relevance of Bad Science for Good Science includes a handy Top10 …

: Work/Life Balance

: US Insurrectionist Movement? January 6 moved Randy Pherson at Globalytica to ask if there is an active insurrectionist movement …

: What is your theory, again? Just re-found this @ayjay essay in an old tab. The question I would ask churches that are …

: Kasparov vs Deep Blue, & techno-determinism too Writing for IEEE Spectrum, Joanna Goodrich says that Deep Blue beat Kasparov because was just so …

: My People Sam Rocha, In America Magazine

: Well, this seems backwards. Hopefully Janelle Shane will have a delightful and silly riposte. …

: Huh. My age group (45+) has about 25% more deaths this year - roughly the same excess % as for 85+. …

: Updated CDC numbers CDC total deaths snapshot: December weekly #s gained about 4,500 vs. two weeks ago: there are now 4 …

: “Either we can all be cold… or we can live in Florida.”

: The thing I read today was Yudkowsky on r/WallStreetBets - I did not know that.

: Ritchie on Sloppy Pandemic Science Essay worth reading in its entirety: The Great Reinforcer by Stuart Ritchie. To be sure, out of the …

: It seems flu counts really are extraordinarily low. Sure, we’re missing cases because people …

: A good column by our SVP for technology & innovation.

: This was a sobering take on possible downsides of Universal Basic Income. HTT Bryan Caplan.

: Commie Vaccine Meteors A friend notes that the US has a long of equating vaccines and public health with commie …

: So, we tried this. It’s good, though a bit sweeter than I was wanting today. Fun! …

: Bookmarking A methodology for agile data science by Edwin Thoen (ch.5 of Agile Data Science with R). …

: Bookmarking Why Kanban for data science. Two core issues: …tasks have uncertain outcomes …

: Prayers of the Faithful [Edited 2021-02-02 to shorten and include Alexis' suggestion. -crt] [2021-05-23 Updated the CDC …

: Immortal time bias A subtle trap in treatment studies. I hadn’t heard of it, and had to follow …

: Don't do cryptocurrency It seems like the current crypto market may be a giant fraud. This fits my mildly informed …

: Antifa, q, redirect, big tech Just capturing a facebook post (screenshot) - I went into the internet archive to see what used to …

: Opportunity costs. What would happen if the Dems made a strategic compromise on Roe v Wade? If you were Biden, what …

: Wrong About The winner of the Metaculus Li-Wenliang COVID-19 forecasting tournament was wrong about …

: Monk on American Democracy Aristotle argued that an enduring republic required a balance between democracy (popular …

: From Pale Rider, Afterword: …and novelists try to put themselves [in] the heads of those who …

: Monk on China Conspiracy Theories - April 2020 I was reviewing this old interview with Australia’s Paul Monk, covering Coronavirus, China, …

: A touching, real conversation on faith, death, grief, culture wars, the Christmas season, …

: I’m not a fan of the XKCD “free speech” strip. I think it fails the reflexivity …

: Another great piece at Fantastic Anachronism: Are Experts Real. I hadn’t heard about N=59. 😱 …

: More vs Slack In Slack and Zoom were distracting…, John Lacy notes: We found that asynchronous communication …

: Sitting at a desk all day, it’s easy to start feeling like a brainless polyp Walking as as …

: Richard Hanania: A remarkably high percentage of bad economic takes can be attributed to people …

: A Covid Puzzle Resolved In a discussion with @Somensi about excess deaths, I was puzzled by an apparent discrepancy between …

: Concentrate An essay by Grand Master Jonathan Rowan, courtesy of Readup. But, most of all, I miss …

: e.e. cummings “next to of course god america i love you land of the pilgrims’ and so forth oh say can you see …

: Sounds like a fun blog, just shouldn’t be masquerading as a journal. …

: Herzog & Sullivan: Where Have All the Lesbians Gone? Instead of saying, “I’m a woman and I reject gender roles,” NB ideology says, in effect, “I reject …

: The Dish Podcast Excellent discussion between Sullivan and Yglesias. Had to grit my teeth through some of Yglesias’ …

: Cited in a Gelman piece, sort-of Our July paper Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the …

: Acta Scientifica... …is so desperate they solicit my “unpublished rhetoric” for the next issue. I would …

: Optimizing Pandas A clear and compelling example of vectorizing pandas code for 1700x speedup.

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: Recent climate thread by the always wonderful @KHayhoe, responding to the usual. Good videos too. …

: xkcd.com/808/ “Eventually, arguing that thesee things work means arguing that modern capitalism …

: I’m not sure “reblog” is a thin in µ.blog, but: social.ayjay.org/2020/11/0… …

: Ten Thousand xkcd.com/1053/ That said, watching the US President have dozens of these moments as he …

: Sometimes in the evening, I return to do some work. But it’s late and hard to focus. I begin …

: Base Rates www.smbc-comics.com/comic/ris… HTT @rplzzz

: 🗓🖋#mbnov ‘’Once upon a planet dreary / Came a rocket engine cheery / On a flight to test a theory / …

: @ayjay on children's crusades This got my attention both because of its current echoes and because he’s right - I’ve …

: Not Even Wrong l’ve seen some of the bizarre papers described in Maddie Blender’s article in Vice. …

: Paper in a Day (@DevyBee) Dorothy Bishop, The Paper-in-a-Day Approach describes a once-a-year exercise her lab does to do a …

: Hubble bias When the Hubble Space Telescope allocation team launched dual-anonymous peer review for Hubble …

: Betteridge’s law of headlines: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be …

: How replicable is ecology? Good summary by Jeremy Fox of Alvaro’s post, with a (closed) poll, …

: C.S. Lewis on Outrage 📚💬 Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper. Then suppose that something turns up …

: Listening to Burnout discussion by authors Emily Nagoski and Amelia Nagoski on Brené Brown. 📚💬 In …

: Andrew Sullivan on Algorithms vs. Democracy From his essay We Are All Algorithms Now. Don’t get your news from social media. For Facebook …

: Epistemic Humility: COVID19 A refreshing disclaimer from yesterday’s BMJ: Covid-19’s known unknowns Competing …

: Linda Fallacy? Proposed Constitutional Amendments (VA) QUESTION 2: Should an automobile or pickup …

: Vox article on Replication & Replication Markets Vox’s Kelsey Piper discusses the replication crisis in “Future Perfect" this week, …

: Ode to our forecasters: What a Year! 54K surveys, 42K trades, 3K claims; Dedicated ‘casters, …

: I reviewed the Watanabe manuscript. I think it’s worth a follow-up. Am I missing something? …

: This sounds fantastic. Why haven’t I done this? www.natureindex.com/news-blog…

: Karl Popper on Social Media As for Adler, I was much impressed by a personal experience. Once, in …

: Saturn. First attempt, just holding my iphone near the eyepiece and clicking photos until one …

: Science is getting harder to read. More jargon, more acronyms, worse writing. All those reduce …

: New PDF compares accuracy of 7 key #COVID-19 models. On mean absolute % error for total deaths …

: Of the various kinds of misinformation during this pandemic, at least I was spared relatives touting …

: Short well-written plea to actually read the article. I’ve been trying Readup, which is like a …

: Solitude and Leadership, by Deresiewicz Solitude and Leadership By William Deresiewicz | March 1, 2010 Reminders for my increasingly …

: Estrogen, COVID-19, and Rapid Reviews In my day, philosophers encountered birth control pills at least twice during training. First and …

: What is a replication In a recent Nature essay urging pre-registering replications, Brian Nosek and Tim Errington note: …

: What is the purpose of retraction? Clearly it’s appropriate in cases of fraud or negligence. …

: Retractable masks? [In a piece about about masks] …

: For COVID forecasting, remember the superforecasters at Good Judgment. Currently placing US deaths …

: Alan Jacobs with a cautionary tale about assuming news is representative of reality, and remembering …

: Protests and COVID Worried about #COVID, I did not join #BLM protests. Even if outdoors + masks, marches bunch up, …

: Good news: Despite case rise, excess deaths have been dropping, nearly back to 100% after high 142%. …

: I saw my old and much-loved Monash colleague #”ChrisWallace” …

: Open access is good, unless you're a journal? Bob Horn sent me this news in Nature NEWS 16 JULY 2020 Open-access Plan S to allow publishing in …

: AI Bias Dr. Rachel Thomas writes, When we think about AI, we need to think about complicated real-world …

: Rapid Reviews: COVID-19 The announcement of RR:C19 seems a critical step forward. Similar to Hopkins' Novel Coronavirus …

: Unsurprisingly, popular media is more popular: A new study finds that “peer-reviewed …

: PDF: Systematically, the NYT COVID-19 counts are high, & CovidTracker’s low. Two more in …

: From @Broniatowski: Postdoc with the MOSI project at the Institute for Data Democracy & Politics …

: Old tabs: found a nice recommendation from one of our @replicationmarkets forecasters, on their …

: A solid Rodney Brooks essay on peer review value and flaws, from inside. No solution, but worth …

: I’m not accustomed to saying anything with certainty after only one or two observations. …

: PDF: US intervention timing simulations using county-level & mobility data: “had these …

: PDF: Simulation: age separation reduced C19 mortality even fixing interactions. “Separating …

: New short PDF Heparin and C19 reviews ~2K Spanish C19 patients. Heparin halved mortality after …

: A few COVID-19 PDFs A non-random sample of new PDFs whose titles caught my eye yesterday. Based on a quick scan, so I …

: Oops: - ‘astonishingly, the forensic medical professional had not died at all. [And] they “do …

: Innumeracy: In mid-Feb I sent my team home due to C19 worries. ~1week later someone at the office …

: Grumpy Geophysicist argues against public preprint servers. Confirmation bias is a risk within the …

: Pro-active Replication Science Is Hard Nature Communications has an inspiring piece about a DARPA project baking …

: Aschwanden's teaser subtitle: wisdom in the scientific crowd Science writer Christine Aschwanden (@cragcrest) just published a nice summary of the October paper …

: Horse betting and @ReplicationMkts A friend sent a May 2018 Bloomberg article by Kit Chellel, “The gambler who cracked the horse-racing …

: Greenland on Cognition, Causality, and Statistics Sander Greenland argues that all mistakes of P-values will be reproduced in any other method, …

: Happy to hear “diversity of thought” called out early in today’s “Inclusive Leaders” training at …